How well did Goldman's top trades do in 2012?

Every December, the analysts at Goldman Sachs publish their top macro trades for the coming year – an event that attracts much hype among the investment community. But how did the bank's trades for 2012 pan out?

If you slavishly followed Goldman Sachs trade recommendations of 2012, and allocated an equal weighting of your portfolio to each trade, you would have returned 1.6% over the 12 months since November 30, 2011, excluding transaction costs. In comparison, the Barclays Global Macro Index increased just 0.01% over the past year.

This return is an improvement on 2011, when Goldman Sachs’s top trades returned 0.3% accumulatively.

Deutsche Bank warns of big hit to profit

Deutsche Bank grappling with a series of legal problems on both sides of the Atlantic, warned that restructuring costs would result in a substantial hit to the bank's fourth-quarter earnings and could tip it into a loss for the last three months of the year.

   The bank said on Thursday that the fourth quarter would be affected by one-time charges linked to its restructuring plans and its integration of retailer Postbank, as well as charges from its transaction banking activities in the Netherlands.

   "I wanted to make you aware that [the one-time items] could be substantial in nature and could lead to a loss," chief financial officer Stefan Krause said on a conference call with analysts Thursday.

Most analysts had projected net income of between €500m and €600m ($654m and $784m). The bank earned €147m in last year's fourth quarter.

Analysts raise doubts over EU bank rescue

 

Myanmar's announcement that it will release political prisoners before elections next year has fuelled the optimism of the UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, that his recent trip to the south-east Asian country was not a wasted journey. But analysts warn the secretary general to treat the ruling junta's words with caution, saying Myanmar's generals are unlikely to free dissidents and have little interest in embracing political reforms.

Why Asian brokers remain unsure about outsourcing

More Asian brokers than ever are considering outsourcing back-office functions, but they remain cautious and confused about the client benefits, according to a new survey.

 

The survey, by BNP Paribas Securities Services, found that outsourcing services is growing in popularity, amid growing regulatory and cost-cutting pressures.
However, some are unsure of the positives outsourcing would bring to their business, while others do not seem to understand what their customers need from them.

Gold Bullion "Tests Downside Buying Interest"

 

  Gold Bullion rallied to $1725 per ounce Thursday morning, recovering some ground after yesterday's sharp drop during US trading, as stocks, commodities and the Euro also gained and US Treasury bond prices fell.

Silver climbed to $33.87 an ounce, 2.7% up on yesterday's low but 0.9% down on this week so far.

Argentine debt vultures win big, but have they broken sovereign investment?

 

 

   Question: when is a sovereign not a sovereign? Answer: when the rights in question are attached to Argentinian government debt – or at least, that is the worrying implication of a recent court ruling.

   The consequences of the New York court decision raises not just the prospect of an imminent Argentinian default but also deeply worrying questions about both the future tenability of sovereign restructures and the rights of governments under sovereign immunity.

Eurozone slips back into recession

Buffett: Eurozone may not survive

 LONDON - The eurozone has slipped into recession for a second time in four years, as the sharp fall in activity in debt-ridden southern Europe economies weighed on output across the region.