Forecasts of analysts: the coming days will be for the market test

Russian MICEX index went up to the beginning of a new week just above the key mark of 1300 points, which either will surely be over, or perform resistance, inhibiting further growth of the market. On Monday, the intrigue may persist in the light of the fact that the decoupling on the background of the lack of exchange session on 31 May in the United States in connection with the Memorial Day faces increasing volatility trades in Russia. The beginning of the coming week promises to be difficult for the Russian market, but in general, forecasts of the experts are optimistic. As noted by the chief of analytical department of IC Zerich Capital Management Nicholas Podlevskikh next week, optimism in the market can survive. Since the beginning of the month is traditionally expected influx of liquidity. However, the brightest events are expected. "Will be the annual meeting of shareholders, most of which will be held at the end of the month. The coming week's meeting will be held in the Savings Bank and the NCSP. It may be noted planned for the coming week, beginning the accounting data. Thus, the Integra will provide financial and operating performance for the I quarter of 2010. In addition , released a series of major companies reporting according to international standards: the results for I quarter 2010. on US GAAP present LUKOIL "Comstar" or "Sitronics" IFRS - Wimm-Bill-Dann and VTB. Reporting will be mostly create a moderately positive background "- the expert said. With regard to economic developments of the week, an analyst at Aton Elena Kozhukhova said that on Tuesday the U.S. will be published ISM index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, and on Thursday, along with weekly information on applying for unemployment benefits will be made public a report on employment in private sector company ADP. On this day, there are data on production orders and the ISM index of business activity in non-productive sector. "Friday will be the most interesting day in terms of macro-economic statistics - the U.S. will know the change in unemployment, as well as the number of jobs in non-farm sector in May," - added E. Kozhukhova. Podlevskikh in turn, stressed that the main motive of May - beginning of a new wave of easing of monetary policy emanating mainly from Europe - has yet to find confirmation in dynamic markets. Expected the meeting of the ECB and the Bank of England (10 June), which will be indicated on the continuation of monetary mitigation. According to the expert, from the beginning of the month you can expect the liquidity to markets. The next week is projected to continue growing the previous five-day trading, as well as a correction, because the rebound was too sharp. "We expect that the results coming weeks, most likely, a strong change in the indices will not happen and the market will close for about the same levels as in the previous week", - concluded the expert. However, senior trader on the shares of bank "Zenith" Alexei Surov more reserved about the prospects of the market. According to him, if we consider the fundamental factors, the negative news that have an impact on stock exchanges in recent years, including the debt problems of the eurozone countries, were worthy to be a maximum of correction, but not a trend reversal. It appeared a large number of macroeconomic data and news around the world, which were positive. However, the players filling up the price of fears that the European debt crisis could disrupt the global recovery. Accordingly, the effects of this downturn will be reflected in the statistics in a few months. But until that happens, and perhaps the fall was excessive. In addition, A. Surov notes that estimates of Russia's stock market for cartoonists are quite modest compared, for example, with the U.S. market. This indicates that Russian stocks are undervalued both in relation to the western counterparts, and to its own historical performance. Based on Forecast P / E for the current year, Russia - one of the most overlooked countries in particular, compared with Greece. This type of assessment gives investors who use the value approach, a reason to make choices based on undervaluation. "In recent days, these investors, as well as a significant factor in the availability of liquidity - both Russian and world - have supported the stock indexes," - said a trader. According to him, the Russian stock market on the outgoing week, regained their positions. However, formally it is still in a downtrend - both in the medium and possibly long term. "If in the next two weeks, the market can close above the 1,325 points on the MICEX index, that is above the 200-day moving average, we will say that the long-term trend will not go down. However, while most of the markets is below the 200 -day moving average, which was supported if the market moves down. In early May, to overcome the first time it failed, and markets rebound demonstrated against the News of the creation of the European Union Stabilization Fund. However, at the second attempt, this line was broken on nearly all platforms and now it has become a major resistance level. if it is not passed, the medium-term trend remains downward, "- said the expert. According to the analyst of the Bank of Moscow, Yuri Volova, the next few days will be like for the world's stock markets, as well as for the Russian major test: the rebound with a minimum range of mid-week looks quite decent, and the desire to fix the position at current levels, many market participants can be quite large . Over the next two months, asset manager of the Criminal Code, Maxwell Asset Management George El'tsov expects growth in the Russian market. In his view, the stock indexes can be added to 15-20%. MICEX can rise to the level of 1400 points. Within two or three days the market should be to consolidate the achieved marks. According to G. Yeltsova now choose to buy liquid stocks, including securities of Gazprom and oil companies. Experts expect the rebound in the market of "black gold". However, as noted seylz Promsvyazbank Andrey Pavlenko, any fundamental ideas now on the Russian market there. A little more interesting as a protective securities may be stocks telecom sector. However, the expert believes that the paper "BRIC" may feel some time better than others. "If a majority of the company will change hands, minority shareholders are likely to be made a buyout offer. Given the fact that the current stock price" BRIC "below average over the past year, there is the probability of obtaining a certain margin of difference that exists between current prices and prices that can be declared ", - said A. Pavlenko. According to the head of analytical department of "IT-Invest - Prospect Alexander Potavin, last month and going week showed that the strategy of passive investing, which is characteristic for 2009. Are no longer relevant. "In conditions of high volatility in the markets we must actively manage the trade account, follow the trends keep up, be prompt in making decisions and aggressive in the transactions. In the post-crisis period it is normal commercial practice", - concluded A. Potavin.

Eurobonds continued to grow

At the auction on Friday, May 28, on the Eurobond market is positive dynamics. The outcome of the Russia-28 production reached the mark of 167.125% of face value (yield - 6.418%). Issue-30 Russia, meanwhile rose to 112.31% of face value (yield - 5.421%). Analysts Promsvyazbank fairly conservative estimate the current developments in the market. Two days of purchase on the market until fall within a rebound after a sharp "drawdown". In addition, U.S. indices have not yet overcome the important resistance levels, which in the short term, may again lead to sales in the absence of significant positive news that could support the optimism of investors. According to experts Ingosstrakh-investment ", the first portion of the published statistics on Friday the U.S. was received with pessimism: revenues increased by 0,4%, while costs have not changed; PCE Core in April rose 0.1%, coinciding with the forecast. Before the opening of markets in the U.S. on Friday was marked by high demand for UST: UST-2 - 0.837% per annum (-5 bp), UST-3 - 1.305% per annum (-5 bp), UST-10 - 3,32% pa (-4.4 bp), UST-30 - 4.222% pa (-3.5 bp).

Forbes made a rating of billionaires who are in jail or under investigation

Measured in billions of dollars the state does not guarantee freedom, says the magazine Forbes, published the list of 11 richest people in the world who have been in prison or wanted by the police. In this list, two Russians - Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Platon Lebedev, representing the top management of bankrupt oil and gas giant Yukos. Khodorkovsky, once held the title of richest Russians with a capital size of $ 15 billion, Lebedev only once got into the club of billionaires.Khodorkovsky and Lebedev were sentenced in 2005 to eight years in prison on charges of fraud and tax evasion. The second criminal case brought against them in 2006 for allegedly embezzling 350 million tons of oil. Both denied their guilt, considering the persecution against them politically motivated. Until recently, the richest citizen of China (as of October 2008) Juan Guanyuya also migrated into the category of prisoners. Guanyuya owned a vast network of shops selling electronics and manufacturing company of household appliances. In May he was sentenced to 14 years in prison for various financial fraud and bribes to officials in excess of 600 thousand dollars. American billionaire Allen Stanford can claim the record in this list of the richest period in prison inmates - he faces 250 years in prison for the establishment of a financial pyramid of about $ 8 billion. The verdict in the past owner finance company that bears his name, will be imposed only in 2011 to more than 20 counts. Stanford himself has pleaded not guilty. Ten years to be behind bars Italian billionaire Calisto Tanzi, recognized in 2009, convicted of fraud and making money on the collapse of his group owned by Parmalat. This case is the press dubbed "the Italian Enron. Tanzi owned one of the world's best collections of paintings, including canvases by Van Gogh, Picasso and Modigliani, which was confiscated after the sentence comes into force. For some of the billionaires on the list did not turn the prison wallet - an American, Alfred Taubman, former head of auction house Sotheby's, was able to return to the club of billionaires once held in jail nine months on charges of fraud in the bidding. Taubman has always insisted that was not guilty. But for Martha Stewart four months of imprisonment turned profits - stocks owned by her company Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia rose in price almost doubled, concluded owner of billions of dollars. Now, though, Stewart is not listed in the official ranking of billionaires, but this is hardly the fact it overshadows the joy of free life. Three persons from a list of billionaires, who had already served his sentence, or imprisoned, are on the run - a Mexican drug baron Joaquin Guzman Loher, a Turkish businessman Kemal Uzan and former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, accused of terrorism.

Greece will have to restructure debt

Global financial markets continue to struggle with short-term effects of the debt crisis in Greece, while a very important problem which may manifest itself in the long term, remains - it is likely that Greece will have to restructure its debt, says Finmarket with reference to a publication in Wall Street Journal. Analysts do not think it can happen any time soon. Financial markets are currently very unstable to withstand such a blow, and the assistance provided by Greece, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), gives this country a break. Many experts believe that Greece is still not able to avoid the need for restructuring the debt, despite assurances from representatives of the EU and the IMF in return. Nevertheless, the country probably will not restructure the debt in the next year or two. Speaking Wednesday at the passing of Bucharest Financial Forum U.S. economist Nouriel Roubini skeptical about prospects for the eurozone. Among the fundamental causes of the crisis in the region - lack of competitiveness of its constituent economies. Expensive programs to save the euro zone without tight binding to the financial reforms and cost reductions will not be allowed out of recession. On the contrary, the accompanying increase in taxes in the short term - a sure way to prolong the crisis, Roubini says. "All the funds are being occupied in conjunction with a set of certain conditions, and governments must make tough budgetary measures," - said Roubini. However, markets are not convinced that Greece is able to realize the financial transformation, "Bloomberg quoted the words of economist. According to him, "there are also questions about whether the plans provided for fiscal consolidation in those countries - Greece, Portugal and Spain - support from the political point of view." However, restoring competitiveness in the economies of the eurozone - the key condition for release in Europe out of recession. Restructuring of debt on the merits would be in default, and Greece would have to agree with the holders of bonds or extension of their treatment, or reduction in payment that will bring investors to losses. According to Standard & Poor's, in case of default on the debt of Greece bondholders will receive 30-50% of their investment. One of the reasons that experts believe it unlikely the Greek debt restructuring in the near future, is that much of the bond is in the hands of European banks and defaulted Greece could lead to huge losses of financial companies in the region. Expectations that Greece will not restructure the debt in the next two years, due to the fact that at the moment the country is forced to borrow to finance public expenditures, including salaries of civil servants. Thus, Greece is impossible to unnerve investors. However, by 2012, according to IMF estimates, the country's budget surplus will be about 2.4 billion euros, and the country will be able to finance themselves. In this situation, it can afford to restructure its debt, which may cause negative reaction of investors. The cost of the country to service debt are growing. In 2012, Greece will pay interest of about 17.1 billion euros compared with 11.9 billion euros last year. In 2014 the Greek debt rise to 353.8 billion euros, and it will pay interest to creditors in the amount of 20.4 billion euros. Given the high debt load Greece will seek to reduce interest payments, and this can be done, or to pay the debt or restructured it, economists note.

EBRD annual meeting opens in Zagreb

Annual Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the accompanying business forum will be held in the Croatian capital Zagreb on May 14-15 under the title "Building a sustainable growth." Activities will focus on support during the post-crisis recovery regions in which the bank operates. The Forum will open the Croatian Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor and EBRD President Thomas Mirow. Special guest of the event will be the European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Oli Rennes. The EBRD is the largest international financial institution with headquarters in London, established for the development of market economy in transition countries, conducts operations in various sectors of the economy and business in 30 countries in Central and Eastern Europe, CIS and Central Asia. Meeting of the Governing Council One of the major issues on the agenda of the Governing Board of the bank will issue Bank's capital increase to 30 billion euros from the current 20 billion euros. In early May, head of European bank said that the Bank's shareholders had no objection to that. Consequently, all 63 countries, the EBRD's shareholders at the forthcoming meeting of the Board of Governors is likely to approve plans to increase capital. Management of the Bank in 2009 to initiate discussion with shareholders about the possibility of increasing the share capital of the Bank by 50% in the face of rising business activity and the need for more effective conflict risks. It is expected that with the approval of a capital increase Bank in the year 2015 will maintain the annual volume of its investment activities on the level 8,5-9,0 billion euros. In 2009, the EBRD's investments amounted to a record in the history of the bank 7.9 billion euros. Management of the Bank at the upcoming annual meeting of the Board of Governors also intend to take the initiative to encourage investments in local currencies (Local Currency Initiative) in the region of operations of the bank. As told in early May, President of the EBRD, the initiative makes the post-socialist countries with economies less dependent on foreign direct investment and capital flows across borders, as well as fluctuations in world currency markets. Earlier, the EBRD took the line to increase financing for their projects in different countries in local currencies and issue loans, denominated in national currencies. Business Forum The event will be held three plenary sessions: "Opportunities for investment in new enterprises," "projects of infrastructure development and environmental protection", "projects and opportunities for tourism development." At the same time during the forum, its plenary meetings and individual sections will be discussions on a variety of topics. One of them is indicated in the materials EBRD, dedicated to the annual business forum, as "After the crisis. On the road to recovery." "Leading economists and policy makers analyze the nature of the financial crisis and its impact on the region of the EBRD and the lessons emerging from the crisis - the document says the bank. - Will examine the situation in the region and assessed the prospects for economic recovery." The main issues for discussion will help the international financial institutions (IFIs) during the economic recession, the politicians of various countries and MFIs to ensure stable and sustainable economic recovery. Another topic for discussion, forum participants will recover a debt in an economic downturn. "The ability of a creditor to exercise their rights by force is crucial to the viability of credit systems and market economics - said the EBRD in the materials. - The global economic crisis and financial difficulties faced by many banks and customers have put forward this issue to the forefront." The discussions will be the policy of financial institutions in respect of credit default loans and other troubled corporate debt. The discussion touches an important role in shaping the legal framework of institutional measures aimed at meeting the needs of clients, with emphasis on the practices used in countries with economies in transition. At the forum, we will talk about the development of capital markets. As part of this topic will be discussed and a number of very specific questions. For example, how to clear the balance sheets of banks and enterprises to revive lending, what obstacles stand in the way of corporate debt restructuring, recapitalization, what are the necessary volumes of whether the regulatory system to mitigate the effects of future credit booms and retard the growth of borrowing in foreign currency and others. Another topic for discussion will be the rise of the corporate sector and the struggle for the return of investment. The main issues raised for discussion: whether the company survived the global financial crisis, or worse yet to come, as enterprises can regain the interest of strategic and financial investors since the crisis, how can be restructured corporate debt, what role can and should play a state in areas such as promoting the rise of the corporate sector, investment in infrastructure and changes in the investment climate and others. The next topic for discussion is the reduction of carbon emissions. Questions for discussion: what is the potential role of the carbon market in the region, the EBRD, and what effect will a low carbon economic growth, how to fund these transactions and what are the implications for the sectors in which the EBRD invests. Be discussed and the topic of energy security. It occupies the top spot on the agenda of international politics - says the EBRD. - Production and consumption, supply and demand - these simple economic formula conceals a complex reality of the problem of energy security in Europe. " Economic and political interests together when consuming countries seek to ensure diversification and security of supply, and producing countries try to achieve steady sales and prices, says the bank. This discussion will be attended by senior representatives of the various links in the chain of suppliers and consumers who will discuss this politically relevant and at the same time complex and sensitive topic. During the business forum will take place and the "round table" of Mayors. Heads of the leading cities in the region, where he works EBRD, will lead a conversation about the social impact of economic crisis. Forums country By tradition, the annual business forum of the EBRD will be held presentations of each of the countries in which the EBRD operates. Appropriate action will take place in Russia on May 15 from 9.00 to 10.30 (11.00-12.30 Moscow time). According to the forum, the presentation will take part the deputy head of the Department of Economic Development Investment Policy Dmitry Kvitko.