Forecasts of analysts: the coming days will be for the market test

Russian MICEX index went up to the beginning of a new week just above the key mark of 1300 points, which either will surely be over, or perform resistance, inhibiting further growth of the market. On Monday, the intrigue may persist in the light of the fact that the decoupling on the background of the lack of exchange session on 31 May in the United States in connection with the Memorial Day faces increasing volatility trades in Russia. The beginning of the coming week promises to be difficult for the Russian market, but in general, forecasts of the experts are optimistic. As noted by the chief of analytical department of IC Zerich Capital Management Nicholas Podlevskikh next week, optimism in the market can survive. Since the beginning of the month is traditionally expected influx of liquidity. However, the brightest events are expected. "Will be the annual meeting of shareholders, most of which will be held at the end of the month. The coming week's meeting will be held in the Savings Bank and the NCSP. It may be noted planned for the coming week, beginning the accounting data. Thus, the Integra will provide financial and operating performance for the I quarter of 2010. In addition , released a series of major companies reporting according to international standards: the results for I quarter 2010. on US GAAP present LUKOIL "Comstar" or "Sitronics" IFRS - Wimm-Bill-Dann and VTB. Reporting will be mostly create a moderately positive background "- the expert said. With regard to economic developments of the week, an analyst at Aton Elena Kozhukhova said that on Tuesday the U.S. will be published ISM index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, and on Thursday, along with weekly information on applying for unemployment benefits will be made public a report on employment in private sector company ADP. On this day, there are data on production orders and the ISM index of business activity in non-productive sector. "Friday will be the most interesting day in terms of macro-economic statistics - the U.S. will know the change in unemployment, as well as the number of jobs in non-farm sector in May," - added E. Kozhukhova. Podlevskikh in turn, stressed that the main motive of May - beginning of a new wave of easing of monetary policy emanating mainly from Europe - has yet to find confirmation in dynamic markets. Expected the meeting of the ECB and the Bank of England (10 June), which will be indicated on the continuation of monetary mitigation. According to the expert, from the beginning of the month you can expect the liquidity to markets. The next week is projected to continue growing the previous five-day trading, as well as a correction, because the rebound was too sharp. "We expect that the results coming weeks, most likely, a strong change in the indices will not happen and the market will close for about the same levels as in the previous week", - concluded the expert. However, senior trader on the shares of bank "Zenith" Alexei Surov more reserved about the prospects of the market. According to him, if we consider the fundamental factors, the negative news that have an impact on stock exchanges in recent years, including the debt problems of the eurozone countries, were worthy to be a maximum of correction, but not a trend reversal. It appeared a large number of macroeconomic data and news around the world, which were positive. However, the players filling up the price of fears that the European debt crisis could disrupt the global recovery. Accordingly, the effects of this downturn will be reflected in the statistics in a few months. But until that happens, and perhaps the fall was excessive. In addition, A. Surov notes that estimates of Russia's stock market for cartoonists are quite modest compared, for example, with the U.S. market. This indicates that Russian stocks are undervalued both in relation to the western counterparts, and to its own historical performance. Based on Forecast P / E for the current year, Russia - one of the most overlooked countries in particular, compared with Greece. This type of assessment gives investors who use the value approach, a reason to make choices based on undervaluation. "In recent days, these investors, as well as a significant factor in the availability of liquidity - both Russian and world - have supported the stock indexes," - said a trader. According to him, the Russian stock market on the outgoing week, regained their positions. However, formally it is still in a downtrend - both in the medium and possibly long term. "If in the next two weeks, the market can close above the 1,325 points on the MICEX index, that is above the 200-day moving average, we will say that the long-term trend will not go down. However, while most of the markets is below the 200 -day moving average, which was supported if the market moves down. In early May, to overcome the first time it failed, and markets rebound demonstrated against the News of the creation of the European Union Stabilization Fund. However, at the second attempt, this line was broken on nearly all platforms and now it has become a major resistance level. if it is not passed, the medium-term trend remains downward, "- said the expert. According to the analyst of the Bank of Moscow, Yuri Volova, the next few days will be like for the world's stock markets, as well as for the Russian major test: the rebound with a minimum range of mid-week looks quite decent, and the desire to fix the position at current levels, many market participants can be quite large . Over the next two months, asset manager of the Criminal Code, Maxwell Asset Management George El'tsov expects growth in the Russian market. In his view, the stock indexes can be added to 15-20%. MICEX can rise to the level of 1400 points. Within two or three days the market should be to consolidate the achieved marks. According to G. Yeltsova now choose to buy liquid stocks, including securities of Gazprom and oil companies. Experts expect the rebound in the market of "black gold". However, as noted seylz Promsvyazbank Andrey Pavlenko, any fundamental ideas now on the Russian market there. A little more interesting as a protective securities may be stocks telecom sector. However, the expert believes that the paper "BRIC" may feel some time better than others. "If a majority of the company will change hands, minority shareholders are likely to be made a buyout offer. Given the fact that the current stock price" BRIC "below average over the past year, there is the probability of obtaining a certain margin of difference that exists between current prices and prices that can be declared ", - said A. Pavlenko. According to the head of analytical department of "IT-Invest - Prospect Alexander Potavin, last month and going week showed that the strategy of passive investing, which is characteristic for 2009. Are no longer relevant. "In conditions of high volatility in the markets we must actively manage the trade account, follow the trends keep up, be prompt in making decisions and aggressive in the transactions. In the post-crisis period it is normal commercial practice", - concluded A. Potavin.