Main events of the week in the economy

Conference UBS, which as one of the possible negatives for a resurgent Russia's economy from the crisis has been called excessive strengthening of the ruble, a meeting between President Dmitry Medvedev with the RSPP, as well as the adoption in first reading by the opposition criticized the budget 2010-2012 have been the main economic event of the last week . Quite controversial received the first press conference of the new top management of AvtoVAZ, which has found - albeit in theory - the possibility of bankruptcy. By the good news should include reaching agreements on two projects designed to diversify gas deliveries to Europe - South and North flows. The strong ruble as a risk factor The outgoing week started with the publication of positive data on Russia's economy, which confirmed the participants held October 21-22 conference UBS. Russia's GDP in the third quarter to the second increased by 0,6%, and in the fourth to a third is expected to grow at 3-4%, said Deputy Economic Development and Trade Klepach. According to him, against the background of growing cost of oil in 2010, GDP may grow by 2%, not 1.6% as projected earlier. The outlook on inflation again adjusted downward - on the basis of the current year could fall below 10%, said the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank Alexey Ulyukaev. About the new economic recovery and indicates the flow of real money from abroad. At a UBS conference Ulyukaev forecasted net capital inflow in the fourth quarter at 15-20 billion dollars. By negativity conference participants carried cheapening dollar. Its price is below the 26-27 rubles can be dangerous for the economy, says Klepac. According to him, if oil will cost about 80 dollars per barrel, and capital inflows continue to rise, the ruble could be enhanced to pre-crisis 23-24 rubles per dollar. Russia's economy, which depends on export earnings in foreign currency, this is not yet ready. Another obstacle to the growth of the economy - high interest rates on loans. According to Ulyukayev, administrative measures would not apply - with the banks provide educational services. The authorities are preparing a series of programs to reduce mortgage rates to 10-12%. The President talked with business On Wednesday, the president of Russia met with representatives at exhibition industry Entrepreneurs (RSPP). One of the topics for discussion was the transition to post-crisis development of the country. It is assumed that the state may reduce the degree of participation in the economy. So, perhaps corporatization of a number of state-owned corporations - except those in the present circumstances can not survive independently, "Medvedev said. The state expects from business investment in the domestic market. Capital earned in Russia, should mostly be located within the country, the president said, calling Russia's companies increasingly use innovative technologies. Technical re-equipment - that's great, but the costs would be borne by the companies themselves, so their leaders can demonstrate loyalty to the initiatives "from above", and then unleash them on the brakes, argue experts in this regard. One of the ideas expressed by the business at a meeting with the head of state - the gradual reduction of state support of banks. The latter do not have to risk giving out loans to ailing companies, say representatives of the banking community. Medvedev agreed to the idea that exit from the crisis with only three state-owned banks can not. He also called on business to state law enforcement agencies about any corruption in the courts. However, the topic of tax cuts and reducing the number of inspections - namely, the business was waiting for the president - in the course of the meeting has not sounded, noted experts. Budget had a row, but approved Wednesday was rich in the important economic events - the day the Duma passed in first reading the draft budget for 2010-2012. According to the document, the budget deficit in 2010 will make 6,8% of GDP in 2011 - 4% of GDP in 2012 - 3% of GDP. To convey his will from the reserve funds, as well as by borrowing. In general, the budget will have a social character, the basic commitment to the people are met, said Vice-Premier and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin. Sekvestiruyut a number of investment and federal target programs. Valuation of oil the next three years in the draft budget rather conservative - 59-60 dollars per barrel. Revenues from oil exports at a price above 50 dollars per barrel will again be postponed on a rainy day, while the remaining funds will be used primarily to "sotsialku" to the detriment of investment and infrastructure projects. According to representatives of the opposition, "excess" money should be spent on development of production and basic science, but not sterilized in the "Potbelly." They refused to vote for this budget, calling it a "lime" and illogical. However, United Russia, too, found many flaws in the document, promising to seriously complete his second reading. AvtoVAZ: theory of bankruptcy Held in Monday, the first press conference of the new top management of AvtoVAZ has turned controversial: a guide auto giant for the first time publicly announced the theoretical possibility of bankruptcy, but then added that resorting to this procedure will not have to. This is possible only as a last resort, to the plant could get the time to address the issue of debt restructuring, said executive vice president of finance and corporate governance Oleg Lobanov. This production process will be saved, he said. President of AvtoVAZ, Igor Komarov expressed confidence that the resort to measures of protection from creditors, the plant will not have to. By year-end debt auto giant to reach a huge amount of 75 billion rubles, said participants of the press conference. The preferred method of restructuring - Issue of convertible bonds worth 50 billion rubles, but other possibilities will be discussed. Top managers of the auto giant made a number of optimistic statements, outlining the measures that they believe should help AvtoVAZ again win the hearts of consumers. It is a concentration on production cars at one or two platforms, the use of technology alliance Renault-Nissan and, of course, and radical improvement of the quality. Gas positive The positive news of the week should be classified and substantial agreement on the "Southern Stream" - a gas pipeline from Russia to southern Europe. On Tuesday, under Medvedev's visit to Serbia signed an agreement to establish a joint venture for the Serbian section of South Stream "-" Gazprom "will receive it 51%. This week it became known, and on consolidation of previous agreements with Turkey on "Southern Stream" - Ankara agreed to a gas pipeline in its Black Sea waters. According to the head of Gazprom, Alexei Miller, the South Stream will be completed no later than 2015. And on Thursday, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said that South Stream can be completed even before the Baltic Sea Nord Stream "(Nord Stream). Earlier it was reported that the last to be introduced in 2011. However, even at nord Stream this week there was a positive dynamics - on Tuesday it became known that Denmark was the first country on whose territory the pipeline will pass, gave its approval for its construction. Now the project should agree on the relevant departments of the other four countries through which the pipeline will pass. After this assessment in the first half of 2010 to begin construction.