U.S. dollar to continue declining at least until the end of the year

On Friday, the ruble continued to strengthen against the currency basket - at 13.00 Moscow time, it was worth 35.52 rubles, as against 35.61 rubles at the close of trading on Thursday. According to the exchange, the dollar traded at 28.96 rubles - is a new annual minimum, corresponding to the level of last December. Falling U.S. currency and the market Forex - the euro-dollar at 13.00 Moscow time the dollar rose to 1.5026 per euro from 1.4936 dollars late on Thursday. Since early September, the U.S. currency to the ruble fell by about 8%. Why "green" sick? What happened to our "green friend", and how serious his problem? The weakening U.S. dollar as in Russia, as well as the world currency market contributes to the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) the USA, which continues to gently "to reduce" the U.S. currency, said the head of the Office of Strategic Planning and Development UniCredit Bank Vladimir Osakovsky. "This supports the growth of commodity prices, particularly oil. In turn, rising in price petroleum has supported a so-called" commodity "currencies, of which the Russian Ruble", - said the expert. According to a senior analyst at IFC Metropol, Mark Rubinstein, the dollar pushed down the fundamental factors: growing trade surplus of Russia, in particular, due to the increased cost of energy, as well as the renewed inflow of foreign investment. In addition, reduced payments on external debt of Russian companies, Rubinstein recalled. In October, they had to pay 9.2 billion dollars, the plans for November more modest - 7,6 billion dollars. However, in December, the volume of payments increased to $ 17 billion, but it evens usual for the last month, the growth in demand for rubles. For now, the dollar under pressure in the form of objective factors, in particular, the weak U.S. budget, but without the speculative influence of America's falling currency would not be so quick, thinks the chief analyst at Alfa Bank Natalya Orlova. "One gets the feeling that the market does not believe in the ability of central banks to maintain stability in a pair of dollar-euro and testing their strength," - she said. Reversal or volatility? In general, respondents RIA Novosti experts believe that soon the dollar will continue to become cheaper relative to other currencies. However, as to how this trend is long term, their views diverged. Trend to the fall of the dollar will continue for as long as the Fed continues to "print dollars" as soon as machine stops working, there will be every reason for reversal, "- said Osakovsky. The Fed plans to complete action on a weaker dollar before the end of the first quarter of 2010, but given the optimism in world markets and hopes for an early end the crisis there is reason to expect this early, he believes. "I do not exclude that the Fed will cease to support the dollar by the end of 2009," - said the expert. In general, dollars are not wanted, says Rubinstein, and this means that the ruble strengthened here to stay. Bank would not deter him for as long as the cheaper dollar will not prevent the filling of the budget. "Acceptable framework for this - oil prices in the $ 77 per barrel and the dollar in the 30 rubles," - notes the analyst, adding that while this ratio does not change. Much depends on the state of the world economy, as it is, judging by the latest statistics, very good, the restoration is developing fast, Rubinstein added. In order that the dollar now has a negative mood, and soon the trend to its cheaper relative to other currencies will continue, agrees Orlova from Alfa Bank. This CBR supports the stability of the ruble and to the European currency, because more than half of its turnover is in Europe, and the volatility of the euro would lead to difficulties in business planning, said Orlov. Ruble-dollar pair is important for the movement of capital, people invested in the currency, as well as the company paying the foreign debt. And the variations are not so critical. Forecasts In the next few months the dollar will stay at around 27-28 rubles, according to Orlov. Of course, much depends on the tactics of regulators - are possible, for example, the intervention, but it is difficult to predict. In the longer term rate can vary from 25 to 30 rubles to the dollar, analysts say. "Fundamental factors pressing on the ruble - for example, the budget deficit, financed from reserve funds, have not gone away, but in the era of the weak dollar does not affect the exchange rate dynamics. Once a relationship in a pair of dollar-euro change in the ruble will affect the internal negative . Fundamentally, the dollar is 30-33 rubles, to that point he will seek ", - she said. Rubinstein notes that in the short term, there is no reason for the rebound, and the end of the year the dollar will cost about 28 rubles. "The ruble may well be strengthened and to a mark of 26-27 rubles to the dollar, and even stronger" - considers Osakovsky. According to him, for Russia's economy dollar cheaper than 30 rubles - already bad, and the lower the worse. The negative impact on innovative industries and industries with high added value, but rising in price petroleum provides capital inflows, offset by adverse effects on the economy, he said.