David Karsbol: "I would call this increase false and unfounded".

Each year in December investbank Saxo Bank publishes shocking predictions (or forecasts Incredible ") - is an unusual application to the standard annual forecast Saxo Bank, which collects the most unlikely, unexpected and sometimes really shocking scenario. Before writing regular predictions for 2010 GZT.RU managed to talk with the head of the strategic unit Bank David Karsbolom. David, one of the main issues that concern today, probably, all without exception - can we talk about the end of the world financial crisis and the beginning of the recovery process? I must say that I still raises concern the situation that occurs in the global economy. On the positive trends that we note in the fourth quarter, obviously, they continue in the first quarter of 2010. However, from my point of view, this process - a kind of inertial feedback on a record decline in the economy, as well as unprecedented cash infusion. This conclusion is supported by macroeconomic indicators that we monitor, at least ten leading economies. I would call this increase "a false, unfounded. I hope that he does not lure investors into a trap, because this alleged rise could lead to negative consequences in the distant future. But since I am a strategist and analyst, I try to predict the best that I can, based on the knowledge and data that I have. Most likely, during the year 2010 will be signs of recovery and stabilization. Some economists expressed concerns over the increasing volume of operations carry trade. Could this lead to inflating the next bubble? As you consider whether central banks begin to interfere unnecessarily risky behavior of investors? Central banks are not concerned about this behavior, because they are interested in the fact that they blew bubbles, it is their main task. They are interested in the fact that the festival never ended. For them, much better when inflated bubbles is 60-70% growth, even in a market that really does not sustained. It is important to create a mood in society that people have again started to buy, consume, it looks much more positive in terms of both central banks and bankers, and governments, as well as those responsible for policy decisions. That is absolutely the work and strategy of central banks.