Friday, November 20, 2009

Europe's economy.

I. "Energy Dialogue" Russia - EU Key areas of contradictions in Russia's relations with the EU. This is not about the contradictions between "negotiating machinery" of Russia and the European bureaucracy, and the contradictions between the two projects for Russia: the project of European integration and assimilation projects of civilization. The question today is extremely tough: either the "Wider Europe" in the "Association" Russia + EU, or the "Great Russia", which represents its own integration project in the Eurasian region and cooperation with Europe on the basis of partnership, but not integration. The conflict between these two models exists in all areas of our relationship with Europe. And last but not least in the so-called "energy dialogue". The basic premise "energy dialogue" is an objective of mutual interest and interdependence. By the beginning of the XXI century Russia, which has the world's largest gas reserves, and Europe, whose stocks make up only 3% of the world, proved to be more attached to each other economically than ever before in a shared history. Contrary to popular belief, it is this interdependence is not a guarantee of harmony, and the factor of growing tensions. A key part of the energy Russia - the EU is the natural gas industry. First, Europe is showing a constant increase in the share of gas consumption in total energy consumption. Secondly, it is the supply of natural gas, due to system constraints on transport mechanisms, the most tightly binds together consumers and suppliers, contributing to the creation of regional alliances. "energy Dialogue" between Russia and the EU in the coming years should be viewed as a struggle for the definition of the parameters of this forced alliance. In the situation today, the gas market is a buyers' market, not the seller. All of Russia's gas pipelines leading to Europe, whereas in the structure of European demand share of Russia's natural gas is about one third. Deliveries are carried out on the basis of long-term contracts, which, on the one hand, allow Russia's side to plan long-term investments in the modernization of transportation systems, on the other hand, are a form of subsidizing the economy of the EU. Gas supplied from Siberia to the center of Europe for the first wholesale price reaches the final consumers at a price substantially higher (the difference is due to the fiscal and social policies of the EU). Printed Circuit Boards - production, manufacture, installation. Stencils. Solder paste. This situation could be quite satisfied with the united Europe. However, with increasing gas demand in Europe, where stocks are exhausted North Sea and as the economies of EU countries, meaning, and, in the broadest sense, the price of Russian supplies potentially increase. So today the EU is taking steps that would allow him to remain master of the situation. In particular, the EU provides diversification and liberalization of its own gas market. Policy of diversification suggests that for each type of imported energy should be provided with supplies of at least three different sources. The share of Russia's natural gas shall not exceed the current level of 36%. Policy liberalization implies a gradual withdrawal from long-term gas contracts and the transition to stock trading, following the example of the oil market. This should provide a competitive alternative suppliers and to pass on to their major risks, including political risks associated with transit territory. Critically important to ensure this policy is the connection to the European market for new suppliers, primarily - from the Caspian region. According to the forecasts of European experts, the share of post-Soviet natural gas supplies to Europe may take up to 70%. Given the already mentioned principle of restricting the share of Russia in the European energy market, this means only one thing: the imperative of EU policy in the post-Soviet space is containment of Russia. That is, opposition to any form of consolidation and integration of strategic suppliers and transporters of raw materials. In this - the fundamental contradiction between the declared in the "energy dialogue" with the EU-European energy dialogue the prospects of building a single economic space in the format Russia - Belarus - Kazakhstan.

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