Friday, November 20, 2009

World economic crisis: Europe delivers ago .

The legendary American investor Warren Buffett once said: "will ebb, and it was then, and it becomes clear who has been swimming naked." Although this piece of wisdom referred to the situation of companies in an economic crisis, it can also be applied to countries, and economies. The situation in Europe makes all the more reason for concern, because the global economic crisis, all the shortcomings and limitations of the European Union were ruthlessly exposed. Indeed, it is clear what primarily Europe lost due to rejection of the constitutional (Lisbon) treaty: their faith in themselves and their own future. America, which is in the midst of the gravest crisis since 1929, opted for a genuine new start by voting for Barack Obama, is in the process of transformation. Disagreements between members of the European Union, on the contrary, worsening with each passing day. Instead of reinventing itself, Europe, under the pressure of the crisis and its own internal contradictions, threatens to revert to protectionism and national egoism of the past. Europe today has a common currency and European Central Bank, which became a bulwark of stability of money in the financial crisis. Any weakening of these two organizations would cause severe damage to common European interests. However, EU member governments in the past few months raises serious doubts that they are aware of this fact. The longer the crisis, the clearer it becomes that in order to protect the Common Market and European integration requires more than just the presence of a single currency and the ECB. In the absence of a common economic and financial policies, at least, between the euro area members, the unity of a common currency - and the very existence of the EU - are under unprecedented threat. Of course, the crisis was under siege almost all countries in the world. However, within the EU and the euro zone there are significant differences and economic imbalances that are reflected, for example, the growing disparity in interest rates. In Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece is rapidly melting, while stronger economies in northern Europe are doing better, although they are struggling. If this continues, effectively putting an end to the Maastricht criteria and the rising national protectionism in the form of industrial subsidies, the euro will be at serious risk. It is easy to imagine that would mean a drop in the euro for the EU as a whole: a catastrophe of historic proportions. Moreover, the situation began to deteriorate rapidly to the countries of Eastern Europe, who have neither the economic strength nor the political stability of those countries that were in the EU for a long time. Given the exposure of some euro zone countries, such as Austria, this crisis will also have a direct effect on the euro area. To wait and see, therefore, is a bad strategy. There is no reason to believe that the current global economic crisis has bottomed out. So, assuming that it will deteriorate further, Europe will soon face a grim choice: either more affluent and stable economies in the north - especially Europe's largest economy, Germany - will use their greater financial resources to help the weaker euro-zone economies, or the euro would be in danger, and with it the whole project of European integration. Why in this case do not introduce new instruments such as Eurobonds, or create an EU mechanism comparable to the IMF? Each project will certainly be costly - especially Germany - and therefore, not be popular, but the alternatives are even more expensive, in fact, they are not serious alternatives in terms of policy. Officially, no way to bypass the "European economic government" or "enhanced economic coordination" (call it whatever) does not exist. However, in practice it is possible, and therefore do not require treaty change. Unfortunately, it has become clear that the Franco-Germanic engine is needed to ensure that the EU acted in unison, is currently blocked. Despite the assertion that France and Germany share common interests, the facts say otherwise. Almost all strategic aspects of crisis management in the EU, Germany and France are blocking each other, despite the fact that both are doing virtually the same. They think primarily about themselves, but not of Europe, which is thus effectively without leadership. The EU was and remains institutionalized compromise, and must remain so today, in the midst of a global economic crisis. If Germany and France would not solve their differences in a short time, and find a joint strategy to resolve the crisis, they damage themselves, and Europe as a whole. It must never be forgotten that the European Union - a project designed to achieve mutual economic progress. If this economic bond disappears, national interests will prevail, and the project will be torn to shreds. Today's Europe is not suffering from a lack of economic strength, but rather from a lack of political will needed to act together. And it is this problem should begin to fight France and Germany.

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